While Western governments from the U.S. to the UK debate the validity of “peak oil”, and obfuscate the probability under a cloak of secrecy, the working world wrings its hands, wondering what will happen when the day arrives and the energy needed to fuel industry – the lifeblood of national economies – is no longer available.
Oil supply is not infinite. Sooner or later it will run out. The interesting speculation is when that will happen. In a recent publication of ACS Energy and Fuels, several Kuwaiti scientists have studied this matter with a multicycle Hubbert model. The original Hubbert model in 1956, accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States around 1970.
The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide. However, recent studies show that the model does not take into account more complex oil production cycles of some countries.